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canisfamiliaris:

Chocolate: Worth its weight in gold?

“In 20 years chocolate will be like caviar. It will become so rare and so expensive that the average Joe just won’t be able to afford it.” So says John Mason, executive director and founder of the Ghana-based Nature Conservation Research Council, quoted in The Independent.

“Chocolate consumption is increasing faster than cocoa production — and it’s not sustainable.” So says Tony Lass, chairman of the Cocoa Research Association, at the annual conference of Britain’s Academy of Chocolate.

Fewer and fewer African farmers are growing cocoa (which can be grown only 10-15 degrees on either side of the equator) because of the intensity of farming it, pest problems, and the low return on their investment, in order to grow other products that are easier to farm for a reasonable profit — for example, palm oil.

American growers (primarily in Central America) allowed their cocoa production to decline radically and are slowly rebuilding production only in the last few years, but they won’t be able to match demand for a long time, if ever, especially since demand from the Chinese is expected to increase radically in the near future. And, frankly, despite the doubling of cocoa prices in just the last 6 years, to an all-time high in 30 years, there’s not much incentive to grow such a capital- and labor-intensive crop anyway, since most of the profits from cocoa go to commodities traders who speculate on prices and to the multinational corporations who control processing and sales — but the profit definitely does not go to the farmers.

Death and Chocolate: Disease threatens to devastate global cocoa supply

In a rare tale of technology, bio terrorism and chocolate, scientists are racing to sequence the cacao tree genome. They fear that without the genome in hand they will be unable to stop the spread of two virulent pathogens that threaten to devastate the world’s cocoa crop.

Cacao trees were first domesticated more then 1,500 years ago by Mayans living in what is now Central America, but fungal diseases such as witch’s broom and frosty pod have largely chased the bean out of its native habitat. The great worry is that one of these diseases will cross the Atlantic Ocean to West Africa, where 70 percent of the crop is now produced. Cacao trees in West Africa have no resistance to the pathogens, which form spores and spread via the wind, careless farmers and, in at least one case, bioterrorists. Scientists say that just a few infected pods would lead to the loss of one third of total global production.

One way to forestall such a crash is to breed plants that are resistant to infection. Scientists identify naturally resistant plants, artificially pollinate them, then test their offspring. This is a slow process, and having the cacao genome in hand would speed things up. Scientists would be able to identify the sections of DNA that confer increased resistance and select the best trees to breed. “It’s expensive work,” says Randy C. Ploetz, a plant pathologist at the University of Florida, “but once you have a genetic sequence, it makes that work a lot easier.”

Scientists expect to release a first draft of the cacao genome by the end of the year; identifying the genetic sites responsible for resistance will take a few years more. In the meantime, producers in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana have instituted strict quarantines to help protect their crops.